Slacking as Self-Care

Why do we suddenly all wear jeans now?

Project Management is better in Docs

You cannot simply 'change your beliefs' to become successful.

Two Concepts of Freedom

Story Structure is simpler than you think.

Aristotle's Politics Books 2 & 3

Aristotle’s Politics, Book 1

I watched (nearly) all of Paul Thomas Anderson’s films and this is what I learned

Why RFK Jr. Might Be Right About the Wrong Thing

Useful is a better concept than true

Companies need better Cultures not Better Data

Is this Simpson's Paradox?

A common misdiagnosis in A/B test results, and how to tell the difference.

Sequential testing — making decisions before your experiment ends

Why peeking at results inflates your false positive rate, and how sequential testing fixes it.

Way too much about linear regression.

There's a lot of details

AB testing Google Ads Bidding strategies

Hypothesis testing with dependent samples.

Kernel-MMD-Hypothesis Testing without assumptions

What to do if you can't assume anything about your distributions.

Hypothesis Testing by Betting

A simpler alternative to pp-values.

A short introduction to Martingales

One way to think about dependent random variables.

How wide should your confidence interval be?

A short, hands-on, guide.

What p-values really mean

Most people get pp-values wrong. This is how to understand and apply them correctly.

[Book Review] The Twilight of Democracy.

An introduction to Compressive Sensing.

Short, fat matricesa are useful, actually.

A Grab Bag of Approaches to Frequentist Multiple Testing.

Pick your poison.

There will still be heartbreak in Utopia.

Opportunity costs us dearly.

[Book review] Liberalism and its Discontents, Francis Fukuyama

Like a prayer...

Is Hamlet incapable of action, or What is Dramatic Action anyway?

Hamlet is NOT a whiny loser.

Book Review: Evenings and Weekends, Oisín McKenna

What's up the Queer Novel(TM)?

The incoherence of Centrist politics.

There is never going to be a Government of National Unity. Stop trying to make it happen.

19 Things I know.

I know less than Sasha

Must we adjust p-values if we test multiple hypotheses?

Yes, yes you must

Alex Garland’s Civil War is about the Ethics of War Journalism

And it fucking sucks.

Energiewende or Energieselbsmord?

Madness and Civilisation II

The Great Confinement + The Insane

Some collected notes on how to what to look for in a therapist.

Bayesian Sequential Hypothesis Testing

Frequentist algorithms are often Bayesian.

Sequential Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing step-by-step.

You (probably) have all the agency you need.

Get to the Point! Making your words count as an Engineer.

Madness and Civilisation - An Exegis.

The Preface and Stultifera Navis

5 things I fail to consistently do but which have made me more slightly more productive

There is always the possibility of salvation.

How I made depression work for me.

So, you're creatively blocked.

Running Conda environments from Jupyter Notebook.

The trauma plot is a problem play, and the problem is it's boring.

Things I liked in July 2022

Failure is not a stage on the path to success.

How to Think like a Roman Emporer, or What's Wrong with Stoicism.

Notes on Budapest

How I made GTD work for me, and how maybe you can too.

What learning to draw taught me.

Don't let your strengths rob your life of fun.

Artists should foster processes instead of building systems

You don't have to love yourself to live the life you want.

A meditation on travel through the medium of some Pizzas I’ve eaten.

An introduction to Gradient Descent

How to optimise basically any function.

On Personal Responsibility.

The Problem with Zettelkasten

Time Series with GAMs

Time series without time.

Structural Time Series in PyMC!

Same ideas, different framework.

Understanding the Guts of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with Hands-on Examples.

Generalised Additive Models look harder than they actually are.

Neural Networks from scratch.

NNs are easier than you think

Bayesian Structural Time Series in pystan.

Adding time varying components to time varying regression

Book review: 7 types of Atheism.

More Complex (Linear) Regressions

We extend our ideas of how to do regression to a more complex class of functions.

Local Linear Trend models for time series

Simple time-varying regression

On Wastmen

The virtues of indolence.

The only way to do it is to do it.

Radicalisation is easier than you think

You can't improve yourself away

Mixed Models

How to handle struture in your regressions